Failure to settle a dispute often comes down to ineffective discussion and exposure of full arguments. You know how it goes, two people meet their minds in order to achieve an agreement and make a collective decision. Both people come at it with preconceptions and expectations, definitions and pre-packaged assumptions, sometimes flawed assumptions, or even subconscious assumptions with an attitude of resistance towards explaining and justifying them ‘It’s a fact and that’s that, take it or leave it’.
We tend to start from the end of an argument and work backwards until one party acquiesces, rather than beginning by laying out our assumptions to be picked apart and agreed upon before the real discussion begins. If the premises are not fully exposed and comprehended by each other, and the decision has high stakes, then the scene is set for a tortuous process, frustration, an on-going dispute, with failure to decide and take action. If either party resists the challenge to unpack their deeply held premises and justify them before they are admitted to the process of consensus and decision then the problem rumbles on towards resolving itself without us (and possibly with negative effects) while we continue to bicker and ‘chase the problem down’.
This is where we find ourselves in the theorised problem of civilisation. On the one hand we have those who are making predictions about over-population, environmental degradation, climate change, resource limits to growth, and problems resulting from social organisation, complexity and economics. On the other hand we have those who do not accept the warnings, arguing that the predictions are false and that the ‘problems’ are minor in the face of many possible solution scenarios. The level of concern expressed by the former tends to be matched by the level of denial voiced by the latter.
One denier of apocalypse, Professor Julian Simon (1932-1998), dismisses Malthus’ warnings of limits to growth, and Joseph Tainter’s and Jared Diamond’s further explorations into the increasing internal fragility of civilisation from complexity exponentially multiplying the problem of sheer numbers. His fundamental starting point is to dismiss limits to growth arguments by saying that future resources are unknowable and predictions about them should therefore not be admitted to the discussion. His denial is then formed around the idea that the more of us there are the better we will innovate and solve the problems – the title of his book The Ultimate Resource.
Simon has done what we all do when we have an idea that becomes a belief – we initially start seeking out ways to ‘prove’ it. Very often we do this by quickly skipping over the veracity of the fundamental assumptions, a technique which makes far easier the further process of demonstrating the truth of our idea. This is a form of compartmentalised thinking, and it carries through into the steps in our further argument as well. If contradictory parts of our case are drawn out by a challenger we are very good at denying the relationship (and even deleting the notion from conscious thought) then asserting that each component should be dealt with separately. And by the way, you may expect me to come in with this one here, some people such as those with Right Wing Authoritarian tendencies (see next paragraph for definition) display these abilities far more than the average. They make a caricature out of argument chopping, vetoing, and sometimes throwing the whole board game off the table and strutting off trying to look like the winner when they feel a challenger is getting close to the false foundations of their cherished beliefs. The Right is highly attuned to this, and they call it subversion. When you come across someone like this (about 10 percent of the population – 700 million people) and get into a discussion there is only one outcome – that they will win the argument by fair means or foul (Altemeyer, 2006).
The term ‘Right’ is used here in a psychological sense to describe a way of looking at the world which has a deep need for categorical certainty, social and environmental uniformity, and strong defence/denial mechanisms to protect the self in a world of uncertainty. It is the opposite of what we might call Ecological, a way of looking at the world which embraces uncertainty, has no categorical boundaries but instead continual process, and in which self-other distinctions are an illusion. Those with Ecological attitudes don’t see someone ‘subverting’ their argument, instead they see someone helping to enlighten them.
The other ninety percent of people by degree tend to be a lot easier to argue with, because although they initially start to look for ways to confirm a stated belief, when challenged they do then gradually expand their view in order to compare and contrast information that disconfirms their initial idea. Those at the opposite end of the spectrum to the Right won’t even appear to argue with you but will explore with you. To the majority then, their own idea is just a hypothesis alongside many other interlinked ideas, and with exploration and openness the truth will emerge when consensus builds. For the majority of people a winning argument is confident, always open to challenge, never absolutely certain, but one which we have a degree of certainty and high level of consensus in using as a basis for action. For the Right thinker however, a winning argument is the one that is driven through, and from which a sense of certainty is created through assertion and might. Once that is achieved the truth of the argument is held to be self-evident and they can drive on through.
So this is where we are at with issues like climate change. On the one side there is a building consensus (collective power) that we need to follow the precautionary principle and change what we are doing, in order to mitigate negative predicted scenarios based on empirical open research and probabilistic conclusions. On the other hand there are those whose beliefs and life path are set firmly for reasons of protecting the self (and individual power), and who do not want to embrace the cost and uncertainties of changing from business as usual, let alone accept the uncertainties of continual adaption that ecological thinking is now telling us is necessary. The former are seeking power-as-cooperation, the truth as process and change as evolution, while the latter are seeking power-as-right, and stasis through denial, while asserting this ‘truth’ as reality.
The term ‘Right’ is used here in a psychological sense to describe a way of looking at the world which has a deep need for categorical certainty, social and environmental uniformity, and strong defence/denial mechanisms to protect the self in a world of uncertainty. It is the opposite of what we might call Ecological, a way of looking at the world which embraces uncertainty, has no categorical boundaries but instead continual process, and in which self-other distinctions are an illusion. Those with Ecological attitudes don’t see someone ‘subverting’ their argument, instead they see someone helping to enlighten them.